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Menampilkan postingan dari Januari, 2018

Applying Corrective AI to Daily Seasonal Forex Trading

  By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal     ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012)   observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa

A novel capital booster: Sports Arbitrage

By Stephen Hope As traders, we of course need money to make money, but not everyone has 10-50k of capital lying around to start one's trading journey. Perhaps the starting capital is only 1k or less. This article describes how one can take a small amount of capital and multiply it as much as 10 fold in one year by taking advantage of large market inefficiencies (leading to arbitrage opportunities) in the sports asset class. However, impressive returns such as this are difficult to achieve with significantly larger seed capital, as discussed later. Arbitrage is the perfect trade if you can get your hands on one, but clearly this is exceptionally difficult in the financial markets. In contrast, the sports markets are very inefficient due to the general lack of trading APIs and patchy liquidity etc. Arbitrages can persist for minutes (or even hours at a time). Consider a very simple example of sports arbitrage; Team A vs Team B and three bookmakers quoting the odds shown in the table