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Menampilkan postingan dari Februari, 2013

Applying Corrective AI to Daily Seasonal Forex Trading

  By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal     ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012)   observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa

A workshop, a webinar, and a question

There is a workshop on the 25th of February titled " Market turbulence; monetization; and universality " by Mike Lipkin at Columbia University that promises to be interesting to those traders who have a physics background. Mike is a former colleague of mine at Cornell's Laboratory of Atomic and Solid State Physics, and I fondly remember the good old days when we all hunched over the theory group's computers while day-dreaming of our future. Mike has since gone on to become an options market-maker at the American Stock Exchange and an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia. He published some very interesting research on the "stock pinning" phenomenon near options expirations, i.e. stock prices often converge to the nearest strike prices of their options just before expirations. --- If we want to trade directly on various FX ECNs such as HotspotFX or EBS, perhaps because we want to run some HFT strategies , we will need to be sponsored by a prime broker. How

A stock factor based on option volatility smirk

A reader pointed out an interesting paper that suggests using option volatility smirk as a factor to rank stocks. Volatility smirk is the difference between the implied volatilities of the OTM put option and the ATM call option. (Of course, there are numerous OTM and ATM put and call options. You can refer to the original paper for a precise definition.) The idea is that informed traders ( i.e. those traders who have a superior ability in predicting the next earnings numbers for the stock) will predominately buy OTM puts when they think the future earnings reports will be bad, thus driving up the price of those puts and their corresponding implied volatilities relative to the more liquid ATM calls. If we use this volatility smirk as a factor to rank stocks, we can form a long portfolio consisting of stocks in the bottom quintile, and a short portfolio with stocks in the top quintile. If we update this long-short portfolio weekly with the latest volatility smirk numbers, it is reporte