By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa
A reader ezbentley recently pointed out a little-noticed fact in the derivation of Kelly's formula: if we apply the optimal Kelly leverage, then the standard deviation of the annualized compounded growth rate of your equity is none other than the Sharpe ratio (Sdev=S). This fact is of mild interest in itself, but its implication has relevance to another interesting fact of behavioral finance, so I will reproduce our discussions here. Suppose our strategy has an annualized Sharpe ratio of 2. According to the above result, Sdev=2 as well. This may startle some of us: a standard deviation of 200% of our compounded growth rate g - wouldn't ruin be very likely? But check out g itself: g=S^2/2, so g=2 when S=2, which means that g itself is exactly 200%. A Sdev of 200% here means that if the growth rate drops one standard deviation below its mean, we will still manage not to lose money for the year. Another way to put this is that there is a 84.1% chance that our annual return will