By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa
As I mentioned in a previous post, one of the main ingredients of success in constructing a profitable momentum trading strategy in Forex (and futures) is to pay attention to the entry and exit times. I haven't seen any good momentum strategy that has "time-translation invariance", i.e. works without reference to a fixed time of the day. The fixed time can refer to a benchmark level of the market (e.g. the previous close), or it can be the entry or exit time. (This is in contrast to mean-reverting strategies where the reference price can often be just a moving average.) A recent research paper (Hat tip: William) points to another example of such time-of-day effects in FX markets: a currency typically depreciates during its local trading hours.
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