By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa
Once in a while, a book about trading written for the general public contains some useful nuggets even for professionals. Fortune's Formula was one. It introduced me to the world of Kelly's formula , Universal Portfolios , and the maximization of compounded growth rate. The Quants , by WSJ reporter Scott Patterson, is another. (Hat tip to my partner Steve for telling me about it.) What is the most important take-away in The Quants? No, it is not that you should learn to become a master poker player or chess player before hoping to make it big, though you would think that given Patterson's exhaustive coverage of poker games played by the top quants. Among my own professional acquaintances, trader-poker-players are still a minority. The most important take-away is what ex-employees said about Renaissance Technologies: "there is no secret formula for the fund's success, no magic code discovered decades ago by geniuses .... Rather, Madallion [Fund]'s team of nine