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Menampilkan postingan dari April, 2009

Applying Corrective AI to Daily Seasonal Forex Trading

  By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal     ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012)   observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa

Seasonal trades in natural gas and gasoline futures

In my book , I mentioned 2 seasonal trades in natural gas and gasoline futures that have been consistently profitable for 14 years. (Mentioned here and here also.) And not only in backtest: I paper-traded them in 2006, and actually traded them in 2007-8, and all 3 years were profitable. How did they fare in this recession year? Quite poorly. Depending on your exact entry and exit points, the gasoline trade lost about $2,500 per contract of RB. The natural gas trade lost about $7,700 per contract of NG. You may have heard that natural gas price is at a 6-year low. In fact, we are not seeing any increase in industrial demand for natural gas. Apparently, somebody has forgotten to tell the nation's industrialists that an economic recovery is supposed to be under way. Will I enter into these seasonal trades again next year? You bet I will.

Fios and EC2

As an algorithmic trader, I am constantly in search of a better physical infrastructure where I can connect via the internet to my execution broker at the highest speed and with the least possibility of outage, and at a reasonable cost. To that end, I would like to mention Fios , a fiber-optics service from Verizon with download speed of 50 Mpbs, upload speed is 20 Mbps, both faster than your typical T-1 line (1.5 Mbps). Furthermore, it costs only $45/month. Hey, even Paul Krugman has installed it at his home! (I haven't tried it myself, and would like to hear from those of you who have and see if it is time to say goodbye to T-1.) And as I have reported earlier, I am also constantly looking for a good cloud computing platform so that I can run more strategies without cluttering my office with computers. Finding one will obviate the need for any big investment in internet connectivity at the office. To that end, I have been trying out Amazon's EC2 for several months. I use it

The upcoming Black Swan of Black Swans?

In a recent post (hat tip: Russell M.), Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge quoted a quant trader saying that "Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely", and that "liquidity deleveraging is approaching (if not already is at) critical levels", and finally the scariest part: "we have crossed into major statistically deviant territory, likely approaching a level that is 6 standard deviation away from the recent norms ." He pointed out that NYSE weekly volume is running about 9% below 52 wk average. But this may not necessarily be the result of deliberate hedge fund deleveraging or increasing risk-aversion by quant traders. From my personal experience, the usual opportunities for mean-reversion have just markedly decreased in the last few months, with much of the cash sitting on the sideline. I believe that quant traders are still ready jump in at any time to provide liquidity should the market demands it.