By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa
Felix Salmon claimed in this post (hat tip: J. Rigg) that the quant job market is alive and well. However, I haven't heard much from the usually diligent headhunters in the last few months, which doesn't bode well. Maybe some of our readers can comment on the current state of the quant job market?
In that same post, Felix wondered whether to incorporate the extraordinary period of 2008 as part of backtesting data. Actually, I don't see much of a problem here -- of course one should include 2008. The only reason a trading model would have performed poorly in 2008, as opposed to 2006, 2007 or 2009, would be that its parameters are fitted too tightly to historical data. If you try out some parameterless trading models like I advocated, 2008 is not that unusual except for its higher volatility.
In that same post, Felix wondered whether to incorporate the extraordinary period of 2008 as part of backtesting data. Actually, I don't see much of a problem here -- of course one should include 2008. The only reason a trading model would have performed poorly in 2008, as opposed to 2006, 2007 or 2009, would be that its parameters are fitted too tightly to historical data. If you try out some parameterless trading models like I advocated, 2008 is not that unusual except for its higher volatility.
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