Jumat, 22 Agustus 2008

Predicting SP500 futures using investor sentiment

Ronald Domingues, an economics graduate student, has done an interesting study of how well a group of qualified investors with superior skills can predict the movement of the SP500 index. This group of qualified investors are selected by their track records of making correct predictions, and as a result of submitting their predictions going forward, they are eligible to be notified of the average predictions of other qualified investors, thus enabling them to make a better informed investment decision.

In other words, the elite will benefit from the collective wisdom of other elites -- sort of like the real world, isn't it?

How well does it work in practice? Well, they correctly predicted whether SP500 index will go up, down, or flat, a whopping 65.2% of the time. The details can be found on his website, where you can also sign up to see if you can join the elite.

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