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Applying Corrective AI to Daily Seasonal Forex Trading

  By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal     ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012)   observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa
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Are high oil prices due to hedge fund speculation?

The economist Paul Krugman advances an interesting argument today in the New York Times against the idea that high oil prices are due to hedge fund speculation.

He believes that speculative buying can lead to persistent high prices (which has been the case for the last few years) only if there is physical hoarding. Yet oil inventory level has been normal for this period.

Indeed, I have been trying to find a mean-reverting strategy to trade oil and oil-related assets for some time now. So far, none have outperformed (even on a risk-adjusted basis) just buy-and-hold energy stocks for the long term!

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Applying Corrective AI to Daily Seasonal Forex Trading

  By Sergei Belov, Ernest Chan, Nahid Jetha, and Akshay Nautiyal     ABSTRACT We applied Corrective AI (Chan, 2022) to a trading model that takes advantage of the intraday seasonality of forex returns. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012)   observed that foreign currencies depreciate vs. the US dollar during their local working hours and appreciate during the local working hours of the US dollar. We first backtested the results of Breedon and Ranaldo on recent EURUSD data from September 2021 to January 2023 and then applied Corrective AI to this trading strategy to achieve a significant increase in performance. Breedon and Ranaldo (2012) described a trading strategy that shorted EURUSD during European working hours (3 AM ET to 9 AM ET, where ET denotes the local time in New York, accounting for daylight savings) and bought EURUSD during US working hours (11 AM ET to 3 PM ET). The rationale is that large-scale institutional buying of the US dollar takes place during European working hours to pa
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Conditional Portfolio Optimization: Using machine learning to adapt capital allocations to market regimes

By Ernest Chan, Ph.D., Haoyu Fan, Ph.D., Sudarshan Sawal, and Quentin Viville, Ph.D. Previously on this blog, we wrote about a machine-learning-based parameter optimization technique we invented, called Conditional Parameter Optimization (CPO). It appeared to work well on optimizing the operating parameters of trading strategies, but increasingly, we found that its greatest power lies in its potential to optimize portfolio allocations . We call this Conditional Portfolio Optimization (which fortuitously shares the same acronym). Let’s recap what Conditional Parameter Optimization is. Traditionally, optimizing the parameters of any business process (such as a trading strategy) is a matter of finding out what parameters give an optimal outcome over past data. For example, setting a stop loss of 1% gave the best Sharpe ratio for a trading strategy backtested over the last 10 years. Or running the conveyor belt at 1m per minute led to the lowest defect rate in a manufacturing process. O
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800+ New Crypto Features

 By Quentin Viville, Sudarshan Sawal, and Ernest Chan PredictNow.ai is excited to announce that we’re expanding our feature zoo to cover crypto features! This follows our work on US stock features, and features based on options activities, ETFs, futures, and macroeconomic indicators. To read more on our previous work, click here . These new crypto features can be used as input to our machine-learning API to help improve your trading strategy. In this blog we have outlined the new crypto features as well as demonstrated  how we have used them for short term alpha generation and crypto portfolio optimization. Our new crypto features are designed to capture market activity  from subtle movements to large overarching trends. These features will quantify the variations of the price, the return, the order flow, the volatility and the correlations that appear among them. To create these features, we first constructed the Base Features  using raw market data that includes microstructure inform
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